Liam Brown Currency Strategist September 25, 2023 4 min read Timing your USD to GBP exchange can boost your returns, especially in a volatile year like 2023. While no one can predict rates perfectly, seasonal patterns and key events offer clues. Here’s when to watch: 1. **Post-Holiday Recovery (January)** After December volatility, January often sees the GBP stabilize as UK markets reset. A strong start to the year could favor exchanging early. 2. **Spring Policy Updates (March-April)** The Bank of England’s spring announcements can lift the GBP if rates rise or growth forecasts improve. The UK budget release in March is another trigger. 3. **Summer Dip (July-August)** Lower trading volumes during summer holidays can weaken the GBP, making it a good time to buy if the USD is strong. Watch for US economic data to tip the scales. 4. **Year-End Push (October-November)** US holiday spending and year-end reports often strengthen the USD, offering a window to exchange before potential GBP recovery in Q1 2024. 5. **Event Triggers** Key dates—like Fed rate decisions or UK inflation reports—can shift rates fast. For instance, a Fed hike in September 2023 pushed USD/GBP to 0.81, a prime selling point. Use apps like XE or Wise to set rate alerts. Even a 0.02 shift on a $10,000 transfer saves $200. Flexibility and vigilance are your allies in 2023.
